英语新闻丨美联储调息将给央行带来更多选择空间

China's central bank may soon opt for more easing moves as the United States is poised for an interest rate cut cycle, as headwinds are emerging amid efforts to stabilize domestic economic momentum, analysts said on Wednesday.9月18日，专家表示，美国稳定国内经济增长势头的举措遭遇逆风，即将进入一个降息周期，为此，中国央行很快就能有更宽松的选择空间。Possible measures include a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio — the proportion of deposits banks must keep as reserves, or a cut in lending rate benchmarks and mitigation in financial burdens of outstanding mortgages, they said.可能采取的措施包括降低存款准备金率——即银行必须作为准备金储存的存款比例，降低贷款基准利率，以及减轻未偿还抵押债款的债务负担。"We anticipate that China is entering a key period for monetary policy, in which the probability of cuts in the RRR and interest rates as soon as possible is increasing," said Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute.逐际经济研究所副所长吴超明表示：“我们预计中国正在进入调整货币政策的关键时期，在这个阶段，尽快降低存款准备金和利率的可能性正在增加”。"Measures such as intensified use of structural tools and reduction of existing home loan rates are also worth looking forward to," Wu said.吴超明说：“结构性工具的深化运用和现有房贷利率的下调，都值得期待”。The US Federal Reserve's shift in policy stance will create more favorable conditions for China to cut interest rates, Wu said, adding that domestic factors also point to the rising possibility of rate cuts, including insufficient demand, weakening momentum of month-on-month economic growth and elevated real interest rates.吴超明还表示，美联储政治立场的转变将为中国降息创造更有利的环境，并且我国需求不足、月度经济增长势头减弱和实际利率上升等国内因素也增加了降息的可能性。He added that the necessity has significantly increased for an RRR cut in the near term, which would coordinate with strengthening fiscal support, alleviate pressure on commercial banks and mitigate the impact of a large volume of maturing medium-term lending facilities on market liquidity.此外，为与强化的财政支持相协调、减轻商业银行的压力，以及缓解大量中期借贷便利到期对市场流动性的影响，近期内降低存款准备金率的必要性显著增加。The Fed held its latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting from Tuesday to Wednesday and had yet to disclose interest rate decisions of the meeting up to the deadline for this story's publication.美联储于9月17至18日召开了最新的联邦公开市场委员会，但目前还没有披露会议对调息所做的决定。Analysts, nevertheless, said it was a foregone conclusion for the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday, either 25 basis points or 50bp, as US inflation has eased while the labor market softened.然而，分析师们表示，由于劳动力市场出现软化，美国通胀有所缓解，美联储在18日降息25或50个基准点是意料之中的。Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said that in a base case forecast scenario in which the US economy will achieve a soft landing, there is room for 100bp of interest rate reductions this year and another 100bp in 2025.瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克·海费尔表示，在一中基本情况预测情境中，美国经济将实现软着陆，这意味着今年可以降低100个基点的利率，并在2025年再降低100个基点。Yang Delong, chief economist at First Seafront Fund, said the Fed entering a rate cut cycle has provided a firm foundation for the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, to implement of a relatively loose monetary policy.前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，美联储进入降息周期为中国人民银行实施相对宽松货币政策提供了坚实的基础。This is because the renminbi has started to appreciate against the US dollar upon anticipations of narrowing US-China interest rate spreads, Yang said, adding that August data, especially lukewarm retail sales growth, indicated that China's economic growth still needs consolidation.杨德龙表示，这是因为在美中利差收窄的预期下人民币开始对美元升值，然而8月份的数据，特别是零售额的增长乏力，表明中国经济增长仍需巩固。Retail sales, an indicator of consumption, grew by 2.1 percent year-on-year in August, down from 2.7 percent in July, official data showed. Industrial output and fixed-asset investment also decelerated last month while the expansion in broad money supply remained steady.官方数据显示，作为消费指标的零售额在8月份同比增长了2.1%，低于7月份的2.7%，工业产出和固定资产投资也在上个月放缓，而广义货币供应量的增长保持稳定。The PBOC said last Friday it will introduce additional policy measures to reduce financing costs for enterprises and households and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, after a PBOC official acknowledged room for further RRR cuts.一位央行官员表示有进一步降低存款准备金率的空间，此后，中国人民银行在20日声明，将在之后进一步采取措施降低企业和家庭的融资成本，并保持合理充足的流动性。On Friday, China is scheduled to release the latest loan prime rates, or market-based lending rate benchmarks. China last cut the LPRs in July, with the one-year and over-five-year LPRs both down 10bp to 3.35 percent and 3.85 percent, respectively.中国计划在周五发布最新的贷款市场报价利率，即基于市场的贷款基准利率。中国最后一次降低市场报价利率是在7月份，一年期和五年期以上的利率都下降了10个基点，分别达到3.35%和3.85%。Lou Feipeng, a researcher at Postal Savings Bank of China, said it may be "good timing" to further cut the LPRs on Friday, adding that additional policy support is needed to achieve the annual economic growth target of about 5 percent.中国邮政储蓄银行的研究员娄飞鹏（音）表示，20日也许是进一步降低市场报价利率“好时机”，并且约5%的年度经济增长目标需要更多的政策支持。"The pace of interest rate cuts should be accelerated in accordance with the principle of sooner rather than later. September is good timing for this move. Timely rate cuts will help reduce financing costs and achieve better policy effect in the fourth quarter."“应该根据‘越早越好’的原则加快降息的步伐，九月是采取这一举措的好时机。及时的降息将有助于降低融资成本，并在第四季度实现更好的政策效果。”Lou added that it is also necessary to reduce housing provident fund loan rates proportionally if the over-five-year LPR, on which lenders base their mortgage rates, is lowered.娄飞鹏还表示，如果五年期以上的市场报价利率（银行基于此设定抵押贷款利率）降低，相应地降低住房公积金贷款利率也是必要的。Benchmarkn.基准；水准点Mitigationn.减轻；缓解；缓和（负面的事情）outstanding mortgagen.未偿还的抵押贷款（outstanding此处指未偿付的）Lukewarmadj.微温的；不冷不热的