“Explaining a subtle but important error in the LEAP survey of AI experts” by titotal

Introduction: The LEAP panel is a project run by the Forecasting Research institute to attempt to determine the views of a range of AI experts on how future AI progress will go. They recently released a white paper explaining the format of the panel, as well as showing a range of forecasting outcomes. One of the questions in the survey was phrased in a manner that I think was confusing, and was subsequently misrepresented in the text of the report. After a back-and-forth, the team working on the report has corrected the wording in the paper. I have written up this article because I think it is an interesting example of how even very subtle word choices can end up undermining, and potentially invalidating, a survey question. At the end, I provide a suggested improvement in the wording. I'll note that this discussion is confined to one question only, out of the 18 asked in the report. In a later section, I will explain why I think it's still a matter of importance. I want to thank Connacher Murphy and Ezra Karger from FRI for being willing to hear this criticism out and make adjustments [...] --- First published: December 4th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eHh7Yo9r3zyWquahA/explaining-a-subtle-but-important-error-in-the-leap-survey --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.