[Linkpost] “The case for AGI by 2030” by Benjamin_Todd, 80000_Hours

This is a link post. In recent months, the CEOs of leading AI companies have grown increasingly confident about rapid progress: OpenAI's Sam Altman: Shifted from saying in November "the rate of progress continues" to declaring in January "we are now confident we know how to build AGI" Anthropic's Dario Amodei: Stated in January "I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities... in the next 2-3 years" Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis: Changed from "as soon as 10 years" in autumn to "probably three to five years away" by January. What explains the shift? Is it just hype? Or could we really have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2028?[1] In this article, I look at what's driven recent progress, estimate how far those drivers can continue, and explain why they're likely to continue for at least four more years. In particular, while in 2024 progress [...] ---Outline:(03:53) In a nutshell(05:35) 1. Whats driven recent AI progress? And will it continue?(05:42) The deep learning era(08:21) Whats coming up(09:22) 1. Scaling pretraining to create base models with basic intelligence(16:50) 2. Post training of reasoning models with reinforcement learning(25:56) 3. Increasing how long models think(28:54) 4. The next stage: building better agents(35:01) How far can the trend of improving agents continue?(37:18) 2. How good will AI become by 2030?(37:23) The four drivers projected forwards(39:10) Trend extrapolation of AI capabilities(40:33) What jobs would these systems be able to help with?(45:05) Whats the case against impressive AI progress by 2030?(49:49) When do the experts expect AGI to arrive?(51:22) 3. Why the next 5 years are crucial(52:26) Bottlenecks around 2030(56:13) Two potential futures for AI(58:16) Conclusion(59:32) Further readingThe original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: April 6th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7EoHMdsy39ssxtKEW/the-case-for-agi-by-2030-1 Linkpost URL:https://80000hours.org/agi/guide/when-will-agi-arrive/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.