“Sentinel Funding Memo — Mitigating GCRs with Forecasting & Emergency Response” by Saul Munn, rai, NunoSempere

Crossposting notes This funding memo was written by Nuño Sempere and Rai Sur, the cofounders of Sentinel; I (Saul) am crossposting to the Forum with their permission. I've made some minor changes in formatting to match the Forum, but all of the content is the same. Note that I crossposted the memo on November 5, 2024, so by the time you're reading this, Sentinel's funding situation might've changed. See here for an archived version of their funding memo at the time of my crossposting, and here for an evergreen version. Summary Leadership Nuño Sempere – Cofounder & Head of Foresight Founder of Samotsvety, a forecasting team about which one of the widest-read rationalist bloggers, Scott Alexander, says: ‘Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice [...] ---Outline:(00:49) Summary(00:52) Leadership(00:58) Strategy(02:54) Advisors(03:17) Progress-to-Date(04:19) Funding Ask(04:59) Base Scenario(05:52) Mid Scenario - everything in Base plus:(06:16) High Scenario - everything in Mid plus:(06:41) Black Swans, Brittle Institutions, and Situational Awareness(08:49) Addressing the Problem with Forecasting and Emergency Response(10:36) Founding Team(10:42) The Foresight Team(12:18) Foresight Team as of August 13, 2024(12:36) The Emergency Response Team(15:46) Inspirations(17:29) How do these public health and humanitarian aid examples generalize to Sentinel?(18:29) Speculative Scenario(21:37) Emergency Response Team as of August 13, 2024(21:55) Impact Estimate(22:31) Progress-to-Date(24:00) Funding Ask(24:40) Base Scenario(25:33) Mid Scenario - everything in Base plus:(25:57) High Scenario - everything in Mid plus:(26:22) Future Direction(26:49) Appendix(26:53) Inspiration Case Studies(26:57) World Central Kitchen(28:37) Lübeck VaccineThe original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: November 6th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SzuF29o9uQpLpYrqJ/sentinel-funding-memo-mitigating-gcrs-with-forecasting-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.