#48 Optimism and Soft Landings with Nick Lesson

In this episode, we see the return of the original "Rogue Trader" Mr Nick Lesson, who I thought was the perfect guest to get back onto the show, in an effort to contextualise what is happening right now across the world in terms of the economics of it all, and projected recession. Recently I attended a Bank of England presentation in Belfast, and the bank is very clear - they are projecting a long (2 years) slow painful recession for the UK, with plenty of pain, particularly for UK businesses and households, and those of us who have a mortgage. Nick is one of the most well known traders and investors in the world, has lived through quite a number of big economic shocks / events, including "Black Monday" in 1989, the DOTCOM crash, the GFC and now what has been unravelling over the last two years, with the onset of the pandemic leading to the current crisis, where inflation is running at 40 year highs, and we appear to be entering another recession.  Before I spoke to Nick, I was expecting him to be quite pessimistic of what might be en route, as generally he seems to take that sober outlook on the world and economies, however, surprisingly,  his outlook on how he see's things moving forward caught me a little by surprise, as it was much more optimistic.  Nick's view is that it is quite natural for economies and markets to correct themselves, and in fact it is needed at times, so things can cool down, and people can take stock and review how they might come back into the market after a period of time.   His observations are that earnings in the US remain quite high, and despite the FED increasing central bank base rates in super quick time, he does feel that the US market and economy is looking more at a softer landing, as opposed to a chaotic abrupt recession most are predicting, which to me was incredibly interesting.  Nick is however, more concerned about how this all plays out in Europe and the UK, and believes that things will be much more difficult for people this side of the Atlantic.  I also spoke to Nick about the recent FTX / SBF financial disaster, which has caught the attention of the world's media, given the scale of the financial disaster that continues to unravel.  Who better to speak to about what appears to be one of the biggest frauds in history than the original rogue trader himself.  It's interesting NIck's take on this incredible story, where over $36bn has been wiped from this company in a matter of days, as it's owner and the guy ultimately responsible (SBF), sits tweeting nonsense, apologising over twitter in real time - all very surreal.  Nick's overriding view being that the authorities will catch up with SBF, in the not too distant future. We finish the conversation with Nick reiterating his view that he fears more for the UK and Europe economies, than the US, and is certainly much more optimistic and buoyant in general than much of what we hear and read these days, about what happens in our economy and markets in the next 18 / 24 months. I hope you enjoyed this podcast, and remember if you prefer to watch it, you can now do that by subscribing to my YOUTUBE channel.   If you have a question for me or you would like to get in touch with me, please email me at [email protected]  Finally, and something you can do for me now - if you like the show, please give me a LIKE/ REVIEW/ and SHARE the show with a friend - that would be much appreciated. Until next time, please look after yourself and each other. CD