#30 The Subvention - What does Northern Ireland ACTUALLY cost the UK exchequer?

For the last few years I have become very interested in this central part of any Irish Unity discussion - the UK subvention to NI.  Northern Ireland relies on the UK exchequer, to provide a subvention (grant) so it can pay it's bills every year.  In essence we run what's called a fiscal deficit, in that we don't generate enough money in the NI economy to pay our bills. If NI was a business it would be labelled as insolvent, but in relation to the UK, it is not the only region that is technically "insolvement". The UK government claim, through the Office of National Statistics (ONS) that the current subvention is £9.5BN, which is a payment they claim to make every single year to NI.  However over the last couple of years as the unity discussion has gathered legs, more and more people are starting to look into things like the subvention, to find out what is the real figure, as it's kind of important to know, as in all likelihood, we are going to have a border poll on the island of Ireland in the next 10 years.  John Doyle is the Director of DCU Institute for International Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction, and in June of this year, he published a peer reviewed paper to look into the subvention and try and figure out what the actual cost is, should there be a United Ireland over the next number of years. In this conversation, John sets out his body of work, which took him around nine months to produce, which really is a very educational and fascinating listen.  The big ticket items on this subvention payment list are Pensions, (£3.5bn) National Debt (£1.6bn) Defence Expenditure (£1,14bn) Outside Expenditure (765M) and an underestimate of the tax revenues of some £500M. Following his investigations, John is of the view that any subvention is actually closer to £2.8BN, if there were ever to be a United Ireland.  For me it was very interesting to get into the detail on this, as ultimately should the occasion arise where the majority of people on the island of Ireland want Irish Unity, this negotiation on the subvention, and to keep it simple, will ultimately end up in a kind of a "horse deal", between both sets of governments, which is fascinating in itself. Over the last twelve months I have gravitated to a position where the subvention for me is somewhat of a red herring, and this conversation proved that academically and financially, there is now no reason to assume that the Republic of Ireland cannot afford to take on N Ireland.  In fact If you revert to the Hübner report of 2016, it sets out in more detail that over the first eight years of a new Ireland, with an all island economy, there would be a €35BN positive net swing in revenue, as a result of the new economic structure. This is one of the key parts of any Unity discussion, and I am very grateful to John for speaking to me earlier this week on this issue, and I congratulate him on his paper, and would encourage you to download it and read it yourself. If you have any questions in relation to the episode, you can get me at [email protected]  If you get a moment, please rate the podcast, and if you don't mind, send it onto to one of your pals. Look after yourself, and speak to you again soon, CD