Wargaming a Taiwan invasion scenario: Lyle Goldstein on the CSIS wargame “The First Battle of the Next War"

This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Lyle Goldstein, director for China engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities and previously a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught for 20 years. Lyle offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings. 01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS 04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance 09:09 – What is the value of wargaming? 13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency 17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game 22:05 – How much agency do the players have? 24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame? 26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame 31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation 38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions 47:37 – Will we get a warning? A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com. Recommendations: CSIS Report: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Lyle: Yin Yu Tang in Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts Kaiser: The Story of Civilization [Volumes 1 to 11] by Will & Ariel Durant Our Oriental Heritage: The Story of Civilization, Volume 1 by Will Durant Mentioned: Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry by Lyle J. Goldstein See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.